Ukrainian forces have cleared both settlements of remaining Russian infiltrators and liberated several nearby villages after Russian forces spent months infiltrating the area while maintaining operational security.

Approximately 55 square kilometres of territory in the area may now be under Ukrainian control, although much of it remains a contested "grey zone." The assessment is based partly on the high number of Russian FAB glide-bomb strikes recorded in the region.

Russia's principal challenge in the sector is logistics. Roads leading to the front are exposed and reportedly remain under Ukrainian fire. Russian forces are using the heavily damaged settlements of Bahatyr and Komar as staging areas, but infantry must still travel between five and 10 kilometres on foot along exposed roads before reaching assault positions.

Recent videos reportedly show significant Russian losses during attempts to cross the Vovcha, Solona and Mokri Yaly rivers. Despite those casualties, Russian infantry continue to attack the section of the so-called "New Donbas Line" between Novopavlivka and Ivanivka, where they must cross two rivers and three defensive trenches.

Russian troops have also been observed carrying flags in Iskra, farther west. The assessment describes this as an apparent attempt by Russia's 90th Tank Division to demonstrate that it retains control of the situation.

Russian military bloggers have warned of a possible Ukrainian breakthrough toward Komar, where fighting near Piddubne has continued for several weeks. The situation is reportedly unfavourable for Russia's 29th Combined Arms Army, although the rivers in the area continue to limit the potential for a wider Ukrainian advance.

Ukraine has deployed the 79th, 80th and 95th Air Assault Brigades to push Russian forces back across the Mokri Yaly River and strengthen its positions in the sector.

The assessment notes an increase in Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian positions. More than 50 strikes were reportedly carried out within a large area of the grey zone between Komar and Ivanivka.

With Novopavlivka under Ukrainian control and Ivanivka secured, Ukrainian forces could move south to pressure Russian units attacking the fortified defensive line. However, the analyst argues that maintaining the current situation may be more advantageous, allowing Ukraine to use the open terrain as a sustained "killing zone" against Russian assault groups.

The Komar–Velyka Novosilka axis could also provide Ukraine with an opportunity to further slow or delay Russia's offensive momentum toward Hulyaipole, the assessment concludes.